Big and lean is beautiful: A conceptual framework for data-based learning in marketing management

Soyer, E., Pauwels, K., & Seggie, S. H. (2019). Marketing in a Digital World (Review of Marketing Research16, 63-83.

Short Article

Abstract:
While Big Data offer marketing managers’ information that is high in volume, variety, velocity, and veracity (the 4Vs), these features wouldn’t necessarily improve their decision-making. Managers would still be vulnerable to confirmation bias, control illusions, communication problems, and confidence issues (the 4Cs). The authors argue that traditional remedies for such biases don’t go far enough and propose a lean start-up approach to data-based learning in marketing management. Specifically, they focus on the marketing analytics component of Big Data and how adaptations of the lean start-up methodology can be used in some combination with such analytics to help marketing managers improve their decision-making and innovation process. Beyond the often discussed technical obstacles and operational costs associated with handling Big Data, this chapter contributes by analyzing the various learning and decision-making problems that can emerge once the 4Vs of Big Data have materialized.

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The Impact of Adding Online-to-Offline Channels on Firm’s Offline and Total Revenues

with Sha Zhang and Chenming Peng,  Journal of Interactive Marketing, 47, 115-128, 2019.

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Online-to-offline service platform (O2OSP) channels offer innovative means for customers to order local, daily services online (via apps) and have them delivered almost instantly offline. By comparing the business models underlying O2OSP, traditional online and offline, and platform-based e-commerce channels, this article aims to identify the short- and long-term impacts of adding an O2OSP channel on firms’ offline and total sales and profits. The analysis focuses primarily on a recent set of daily data gathered from a Chinese fast-food restaurant chain with 35 physical stores that also participates in four food delivery O2OSP channels. The panel data regressions with fixed effects reveal that adding O2OSP channels hurts offline and total profits in the short run but improves offline and total sales and profits in the long run. Specifically, offline and total sales increase by 23.28% and 33.94%, respectively. Thus, the O2OSP channel can serve as a complement to, rather than a substitute for, the offline channel. These results challenge previous research on the sales effects of adding (pure) online or offline channels and highlight the attractiveness of O2OSP channels for improving sales and profits. However, negative interaction effects among different O2OSP channels also signal that adding more O2OSP channels does not necessarily lead to profitable growth

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App popularity: Where in the world are consumers sensitive to price, ratings and product characteristics

with Raoul Kubler, Thomas Fandrich and Gokhan Yildirim, Journal of Marketing, 82(5), 2018, 20-44.

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Many companies compete globally in a world in which user ratings and price are important drivers of performance but whose importance may differ by country. This study builds on the cultural, economic, and structural differences across countries to examine how app popularity reacts to price and ratings, controlling for product characteristics. Estimated across 60 countries, a dynamic panel model with product-specific effects reveals that price sensitivity is higher in countries with higher masculinity and uncertainty avoidance. Ratings valence sensitivity is higher in countries with higher individualism and uncertainty avoidance, while ratings volume sensitivity is higher in countries with higher power distance and uncertainty avoidance and those that are richer and have more income equality. For managers, the authors visualize country groups and calculate how much price should decrease to compensate for a negative review or lack of reviews. For researchers, they highlight the moderators of the volume and valence effects of online ratings, which are becoming ubiquitous in this connected world.

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Social Media and Customer-Based Brand Equity: An Empirical Investigation in the Retail Industry

with Anatoli Colicev and Ashwin Malshe, Administrative Sciences, 8 (55), 2018.

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Abstract:
As customer-brand engagement progressively shifts to digital domains, understanding social media effects in branding has become a vital issue. Social media effectiveness is especially important for the US retail sector due to intense competition among retailers for consumer attention and engagement on digital channels. Yet, the research on the effectiveness of social media in the retail industry remains sparse. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to investigate how social media affects US retailers’ customer-based brand equity (CBBE) which is an important indicator of brand success. Using a dataset of 15,717 retailer-day observations, the authors empirically test the dynamics between owned and earned social media and CBBE using panel vector autoregression (PVAR). The authors find strong impacts of owned and earned social media on CBBE across the board. However, they find that owned social media harms CBBE of retailers dealing in hedonic and high involvement products. Whereas owned social media helps general retailers in building CBBE, it reduces CBBE of specialty retailers.

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Battle of the Brand Fans: Impact of brand Attack and Defense on social media

with Behice Ece Ilhan and Raoul Kubler, Journal of Interactive Marketing, 43 (August), 2018, 33-51.

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Fans of a brand attack fans of rival brands on social media. Given the nature of such rival brand fan attacks, managers are unsure about how much control they should exercise on brand-negative comments on their owned social media touchpoints, and what brand actions drive these Attack, Defense and Across (ADA) posts. Multimethod analysis identifies ADA’s impact across industries of technology, fast food, toothpaste, beverages, and sports apparel. Sentiment analysis identifies that fans posting in both communities stimulate both brand-negative and brand-positive comments. Despite their relatively low prevalence (1–6% of all posts), ADA posts induce broader social-media brand engagement as they substantially increase and prolong the effects of managerial control variables such as communication campaigns and new product introductions. Brand managers, thus, have specific levers to stimulate the positive consequences of rival brand fan posting on their owned media.

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Pricing Best Sellers and Traffic Generators: The Role of Asymmetric Cross-selling

with Cenk  Kocas, and Jonathan D. Bohlmann. ” Journal of Interactive Marketing 41, 2018, 28-43.

Full Article

Abstract:
Among the many items online retailers sell, some stand out as best sellers and are often sold at considerable discounts. Bestseller discounting 10 can encourage customer traffic and the purchase of a basket of other products in the same transaction. Although most studies treat retailers as 11 symmetric, the cross-selling potential is generally asymmetric across retailers, since some online retailers have more products to sell. In addition, 12 the cross selling effect works both ways — customers intending to buy a best-seller may buy other items in their shopping basket, while other 13 customers intending to buy a basket may buy a best-seller while visiting the retailer. The authors model the pricing implications of this rich variety 14 of asymmetric cross-selling, with both best sellers and typical baskets acting as traffic generators and cross-sold products. The common wisdom 15 that loss leader pricing leads to neither a significant increase in-store traffic nor an increase in profits does not apply in an asymmetric case where 16 one retailer has more products to cross-sell. The cross-selling potential of products even far down the bestseller list is demonstrated. Empirical 17 analyses provide support for key findings of the theoretical model using book pricing and sales rank data from multiple online retailers.

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Improving Consumer Mind-Set Metrics and Shareholder Value through Social Media: The Different Roles of Owned and Earned

with A. Colicev, A. A. Malshe, P. O’Connor, Journal of Marketing, 82(1), 2018, 37-56.

Full Article

Abstract:
Although research has examined the social media–shareholder value link, the role of consumer mindset metrics in this relationship remains unexplored. To this end, drawing on the elaboration likelihood model and accessibility/ diagnosticity perspective, the authors hypothesize varying effects of owned and earned social media (OSM and ESM) on brand awareness, purchase intent, and customer satisfaction and link these consumer mindset metrics to shareholder value (abnormal returns and idiosyncratic risk). Analyzing daily data for 45 brands in 21 sectors using vector autoregression models, they find that brand fan following improves all three mindset metrics. ESM engagement volume affects brand awareness and purchase intent but not customer satisfaction, while ESM positive and negative valence have the largest effects on customer satisfaction. OSM increases brand awareness and customer satisfaction but not purchase intent, highlighting a nonlinear effect of OSM. Interestingly, OSM is more likely to increase purchase intent for high involvement utilitarian brands and for brands with higher reputation, implying that running a socially responsible business lends more credibility to OSM. Finally, purchase intent and customer satisfaction positively affect shareholder value.

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Combining big data and lean startup methods for business model evolution

with Steven Seggie, and Emre Soyer, AMS Review, December, 7 (3-4), 2017, 154-169

Full Article

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The continued survival of firms depends on successful innovation. Yet, legacy firms are struggling to adapt their business models to successfully innovate in the face of greater competition from both local and global startups. The authors propose that firms should build on the lean startup methodology to help adapt their business models while at the same time leveraging the resource advantages that they have as legacy corporations. This paper provides an integrated process for corporate innovation learning through combining the lean startup methodology with big data. By themselves, the volume, variety and velocity of big data may trigger confirmation bias, communication problems and illusions of control. However, the lean startup methodology has the potential to alleviate these complications. Specifically, firms should evolve their business models through fast verification of managerial hypotheses, innovation accounting and the build-measure-learn loop cycle. Such advice is especially valid for environments with high levels of technological and demand uncertainty

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A marketing perspective on business models.

with Gatignon, Hubert, Xavier Lecocq, and Alina Sorescu. AMS Review, December, 7 (3-4), 2017, 85-89

Short Article

Abstract:
The Internet and the digital economy have prompted the creation of new business models (McKinsey and Company 2017). Technologies that can enable new business platforms and increased digital access to potential customers have significantly changed in the manner in which firms conduct business, from the creation of value (see, for instance, the literature on co-creation, e.g., Hoyer et al. 2010, or that on open innovation, e.g., Chesbrough et al. 2006), to the appropriation of value (see, for instance, research on freemium pricing, e.g., Pauwels and Weiss 2008, or on pay-per-use, e.g., Prasad et al. 2003). Competitive advantage from product innovation has become difficult to maintain for extended periods of time; as a result, incumbents are increasingly looking for ways to update and innovate their existing business models (Neus et al. 2017). For instance, Accenture reports that 80% of firms plan to grow via new business models over the next 5 years (Accenture 2014).
Changes in business practice have also led to a heightened focus on business models in the academic literature. Several recent reviews highlight the scope of this literature, which ranges from attempts to define and provide structure for the concept of business model, to examinations of specific types of business models (Coombes and Nicholson 2013; Foss and Saebi 2017; Massa et al. 2017; Zott et al. 2011). The majority of these articles, however, can be found in management journals. Attempts to study business models in marketing are scant, and typically focus on specific sectors of the economy (e.g., Wieland et al. 2017 on services, and Sorescu et al. 2011 on retailing) or on specific types of business models (e.g., Kind et al. 2009; Pauwels and Weiss 2008). Moreover, while value creation and appropriation have separately received attention in marketing, they have been rarely studied in combination, which is a prerequisite to understanding business models. This is a surprising gap, given that marketers are responsible for the design and implementation of several aspects of the value creation and value appropriation components of a business model. This special issue is a first step in stimulating more research on this topic in the marketing literature. Building on what we have learned from the management literature but bringing insights from the marketing literature’s expertise on building a viable value proposition, we can further enhance our understanding of how business models can be effectively designed in order to lead to sustainable firm performance.

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The Impact of Brand Familiarity on Online and Offline Media Synergy

with Ceren Demirci, Gokhan Yildirim and Shuba Srinivasan, International Journal of Research in Marketing, 33(4), 2016, 739-753.

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Rooted in the integrated marketing communication framework, this paper conceptualized how brand familiarity affects online and cross-channel synergies. The empirical analysis uses Bayesian vector autoregressive models to estimate long-term elasticities for four brands. The authors distinguish customer-initiated communication (typically online) from firm-initiated communication (typically offline). Their results indicate that within-online synergy is higher than online-offline synergy for both familiar brands but not for both unfamiliar brands. Managers of unfamiliar brands may obtain substantial synergy from offline marketing spending, even though its direct elasticity pales in comparison with that of online media while managers of familiar brands can generate more synergy by investing in different online media.

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Demonstrating the Value of Marketing

with Dominique M. Hanssens, Journal of Marketing, 80 (6), 2016,173-190.

Full article

Summary
Marketing departments are under increased pressure to demonstrate their economic value to the firm. This challenge is exacerbated by the fact that marketing uses attitudinal (e.g., brand awareness), behavioral (e.g., brand loyalty), and financial (e.g., sales revenue) performance metrics, which do not correlate highly with each other. Thus, one metric could view marketing initiatives as successful, whereas another could interpret them as a waste of resources. The resulting ambiguity has several consequences for marketing practice. Among these are that the scope and objectives of marketing differ widely across organizations. There is confusion about the difference between marketing effectiveness and efficiency. Hard and soft metrics and offline and online metrics are typically not integrated. The two dominant tools for
marketing impact assessment, response models, and experiments, are rarely combined. Risk in marketing planning and execution receives little consideration, and analytic insights are not communicated effectively to drive decisions. The authors first examine how these factors affect both research and practice. They then discuss how the use of marketing analytics can improve marketing decision making at different levels of the organization. The authors identify gaps in marketing’s knowledge base that set the stage for further research and enhanced practice in demonstrating marketing’s
value.

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The effectiveness of different forms of online advertising for purchase conversion in a multiple-channel attribution framework

with Evert de Haan and Thorsten Wiesel, International Journal of Research in Marketing, 33(3), 2016, 491-507.

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Abstract:
The Internet has given rise to many new forms of advertising. Scientific studies have focused on individual reactions to specific advertising forms in isolation and have offered little guidance for aggregate-level budget allocation decisions, which are typically based on simple rules. This article compares the long-term effectiveness of nine forms of advertising—seven online and two offline—by means of a structural vector autoregressive model and restricted impulse responses. For five product categories, we investigate how these forms of advertising generate traffic, affect conversion, and contribute to revenue. We find that content-integrated advertising is the most effective form, followed by content-separated advertising and firm-initiated advertising. Although online advertising forms have similar power to drive traffic, content integration dominates content separation in the area of progression toward purchase. Last click attribution underestimates content-integrated activities and suggests online advertising budget allocations that yield 10%–12% less revenue than the status quo, whereas the model’s proposed online advertising budget allocation yields a 21% revenue increase over the status quo. These results highlight the payoffs for companies that integrate content into online media

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Like the ad or the brand? Marketing stimulates different electronic word-of-mouth content to drive online and offline performance

with Zeynep Aksehirli and Andrew Lackman, International Journal of Research in Marketing, 33 (3), 2016, 639-655.

Full Article

Abstract:

Electronic word-of-mouth (eWOM) is often tracked in volume and valence metrics, but the topic of conversation may vary from the brand to its advertising to purchase statements. How do these different topics affect company performance? And which specific marketing communication (online, TV, radio, print) obtains most of its performance impact by stimulating
eWOM topics? This paper quantifies the dynamic interactions among marketing, eWOM content, search, and online and offline store traffic for an apparel retailer. While it yields a similar online store traffic lift, advertising-related eWOM yields only half the offline store traffic lift of brand-related eWOM and of neutral eWOM about purchasing at the retailer. Paid search shows the highest elasticity in stimulating online conversations, but drives less business than offline marketing actions. While TV is the main paid driver of online store traffic, print is the main paid driver of offline store traffic for the studied retailer. Over a third of the offline store traffic effects materialize indirectly through eWOM and organic search. To avoid undercounting the benefits of paid marketing, managers should, therefore, track how their actions induce specific eWOM content metrics and how much these in turn drive performance.

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No Comment?! The Drivers of Reactions to Online Posts in Professional Groups.

with Robert Rooderkerk, Journal of Interactive Marketing, 35 , 2016, 1-15.

Full Article

Abstract:
Social media has moved beyond personal friendships to professional interactions in high-knowledge industries. In particular, online discussion forums are sponsored by firms aiming to position themselves as thought leaders, to gain more insight in their customer base and to generate sales leads. However, while firms can seed discussion by posts, they depend on the forum members to continue the discussion in the form of reactions to these posts. The goal of the current study is to investigate what features and characteristics drive the number of comments that a post receives on an online discussion forum. The empirical setting involves a global manufacturer connecting with health care professionals through a LinkedIn discussion forum. We project that (i) content characteristics, (ii) post characteristics, (iii) author characteristics, and (iv) timing characteristics jointly determine the number of comments a post receives. We show that the readability of the post, the controversiality of the content and the status of the post author have the highest elasticity on the number of comments. These results provide valuable insights for firms on how to build and maintain an attractive online forum through ongoing discussions.

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Truly Accountable Marketing: the right metrics for the right results

GfK-Marketing Intelligence Review, 7(1), Editorial and pages 8-15, 2015

Short Article

Abstract:
A recent study by researchers Germann, Lilien and Rangaswamy showed that companies who deploy marketing analytics obtain 21 % more Return on Assets (ROA) in competitive industries. Unfortunately, few companies appear able to deliver on this promise. In the absence of smarter organic growth, they tend to focus on mergers and acquisitions, which yield high risk and questionable returns (as detailed in Donald Lehmann’s article, p. 16). Marketing accountability is essential for sustained organic growth, but the challenges to it loom large. In my experience across categories and continents, the major steps in truly accountable marketing include defining the right results, using the right metrics and finally acting on the collected insights. As Peter Drucker put it back in 1967, “The question we must ask is not, ‘How many figures can I get?’ but ‘What figures do I need? In what form? When and how?’ We must refuse to look at anything else.”

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Fanning the Flames? How Media Coverage of a Price War Impacts Retailers, Consumers, and Investors

with Harald van Heerde and Els Gijsbrechts, Journal of Marketing Research, 52(5), 2015, 674-693

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This article explores how media coverage of a price war affects customer, retailer, and investor reactions over time. Using data covering a Dutch supermarket price war (2003–2005), the authors find that price reductions, especially deep reductions, trigger media coverage of the price conflict. This sets off a chain of reactions. Press messages have a significant effect on market share and abnormal stock returns, beyond retailers’ own price and advertising. Importantly, this study uncovers striking asymmetries regarding the kind of coverage to which stakeholders react: whereas consumers only respond to the tone of price-related press coverage, retailers and investors only react to its quantity. Next, media coverage feeds back into the retailers’ pricing actions: more media coverage triggers new price cuts in addition to those dictated by competitive reactions. As such, media coverage triggers a deeper spiral of price cuts, intensifying the competitive price battle. However, as the price war progresses, media coverage becomes less frequent and less favorable, which decelerates the downward price spiral.

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Building with Bricks and Mortar: The Revenue Impact of Opening Physical Stores in a Multichannel Environment

with Scott Neslin, Journal of Retailing, 91 (2), 2015, 182-197. Winner of the 2017 Davidson Best Paper Award.

Full Article

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A crucial decision firms face today is which channels they should make available to customers for transactions. We assess the revenue impact of adding bricks-and-mortar stores to a firm’s already existing repertoire of catalog and Internet channels. We decompose the revenue impact into customer acquisition, frequency of orders, returns, and exchanges, and size of orders, returns, and exchanges. We use a multivariate baseline method to assess the impact of adding the physical store channel on these revenue components. As hypothesized, store introduction cannibalizes catalog sales and has much less impact on Internet sales. Also as hypothesized, returns and exchanges increase. Interestingly, transaction sizes of purchases, returns, and exchanges do not change. The “availability effect” produces a net increase in purchase frequency across channels. This more than compensates for increased returns, producing a net increase in revenues of 20% by adding the store channel. Our findings yield a deeper understanding of the revenue relation between channels, and of the dynamic cross-channel effects of marketing actions.

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The hare and the tortoise: do earlier adopters of online channels purchase more?

with Jing Li, Umut Konuş and Fred Langerak, Journal of Retailing, 91(2), 2015, 289-308.

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Earlier adopters of a product or service tend to be more valuable than later adopters. Does this empirical generalization equally apply to earlier adopters of a multichannel retailer’s new online channel too? This study segments customers on the basis of their responses to a new online channel and investigates the effects of their online channel adoption on purchase volumes across segments. The data cover 12.5 years of purchase history and individual transactions at a large multichannel French retailer of natural health products. Contrary to conventional wisdom, it is not innovators or early adopters, but rather the late majority segment that purchases more than the other segments, both before and after online adoption. Adoption of the firm’s new online channel does not influence purchase volumes of heavy shopper segments (late majority and innovators), whereas light shopper segments tend to increase their purchases after adopting this new channel.

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