O2O lifts profits, even offline sales

Blog

Introduction:

Online-to-offline (O2O) channels offer innovative ways to order daily products and services online (via apps) and have them delivered fast offline. Enjoying rising popularity among consumers, the global pandemic saw their growth accelerating. Delivery Hero, the world’s largest food delivery app, saw orders double, while Instacart added 300,000 workers in eight weeks. In BrandZ’ 2020 global brand rankings, Meituan is a top ten raiser, increasing its brand value by 27% to $24B, having evolved into ‘a one-stop O2O super app that people use to navigate everyday life tasks’.  The rise of delivery services like Meituan and Alibaba’s Ele.me (‘Are you hungry?’, shown below with video at https://www.alizila.com/video/what-is-ele-me/) also drove the boom in O2O retail, expected to grow 57 % in China during 2020, according to Kantar.  https://www.kantar.com/campaigns/brandz/global/

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The Impact of Adding Online-to-Offline Channels on Firm’s Offline and Total Revenues

with Sha Zhang and Chenming Peng,  Journal of Interactive Marketing, 47, 115-128, 2019.

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Abstract:
Online-to-offline service platform (O2OSP) channels offer innovative means for customers to order local, daily services online (via apps) and have them delivered almost instantly offline. By comparing the business models underlying O2OSP, traditional online and offline, and platform-based e-commerce channels, this article aims to identify the short- and long-term impacts of adding an O2OSP channel on firms’ offline and total sales and profits. The analysis focuses primarily on a recent set of daily data gathered from a Chinese fast-food restaurant chain with 35 physical stores that also participates in four food delivery O2OSP channels. The panel data regressions with fixed effects reveal that adding O2OSP channels hurts offline and total profits in the short run but improves offline and total sales and profits in the long run. Specifically, offline and total sales increase by 23.28% and 33.94%, respectively. Thus, the O2OSP channel can serve as a complement to, rather than a substitute for, the offline channel. These results challenge previous research on the sales effects of adding (pure) online or offline channels and highlight the attractiveness of O2OSP channels for improving sales and profits. However, negative interaction effects among different O2OSP channels also signal that adding more O2OSP channels does not necessarily lead to profitable growth

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Building with Bricks and Mortar: The Revenue Impact of Opening Physical Stores in a Multichannel Environment

with Scott Neslin, Journal of Retailing, 91 (2), 2015, 182-197. Winner of the 2017 Davidson Best Paper Award.

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Abstract:
A crucial decision firms face today is which channels they should make available to customers for transactions. We assess the revenue impact of adding bricks-and-mortar stores to a firm’s already existing repertoire of catalog and Internet channels. We decompose the revenue impact into customer acquisition, frequency of orders, returns, and exchanges, and size of orders, returns, and exchanges. We use a multivariate baseline method to assess the impact of adding the physical store channel on these revenue components. As hypothesized, store introduction cannibalizes catalog sales and has much less impact on Internet sales. Also as hypothesized, returns and exchanges increase. Interestingly, transaction sizes of purchases, returns, and exchanges do not change. The “availability effect” produces a net increase in purchase frequency across channels. This more than compensates for increased returns, producing a net increase in revenues of 20% by adding the store channel. Our findings yield a deeper understanding of the revenue relation between channels, and of the dynamic cross-channel effects of marketing actions.

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The hare and the tortoise: do earlier adopters of online channels purchase more?

with Jing Li, Umut Konuş and Fred Langerak, Journal of Retailing, 91(2), 2015, 289-308.

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Abstract:
Earlier adopters of a product or service tend to be more valuable than later adopters. Does this empirical generalization equally apply to earlier adopters of a multichannel retailer’s new online channel too? This study segments customers on the basis of their responses to a new online channel and investigates the effects of their online channel adoption on purchase volumes across segments. The data cover 12.5 years of purchase history and individual transactions at a large multichannel French retailer of natural health products. Contrary to conventional wisdom, it is not innovators or early adopters, but rather the late majority segment that purchases more than the other segments, both before and after online adoption. Adoption of the firm’s new online channel does not influence purchase volumes of heavy shopper segments (late majority and innovators), whereas light shopper segments tend to increase their purchases after adopting this new channel.

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Practice-Prize Paper: Marketing’s Profit Impact: Quantifying Online and Offline Funnel Progression

with Thorsten Wiesel and Joep Arts, Marketing Science, 30(4), 604-611, 2011 finalist for the ISMS – MSI Practice Prize.

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Abstract:
Inofec, a small- to medium-sized enterprise in the business-to-business sector, desired a more analytic approach to allocate marketing resources across communication activities and channels. We developed a conceptual framework and econometric model to empirically investigate (1) the marketing communication effects on off-line and online purchase funnel metrics and (2) the magnitude and timing of the profit impact of firm-initiated and customer-initiated contacts. We find evidence of many cross-channel effects, in particular, off-line marketing effects on online funnel metrics and online funnel metrics on off-line purchases. Moreover, marketing communication activities directly affect both early and later purchase funnel stages (website visits, online and off-line information, and quote requests). Finally, we find that online customer-initiated contacts have substantially higher profit impact than off-line firm-initiated contacts. Shifting marketing budgets toward these activities in a field experiment yielded net profit increases 14 times larger than those for the status quo allocation.

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Does online information drive offline revenues? Only for specific products and consumer segments

with Peter Leeflang, Marije Teerling and Eelko Huizingh, Journal of Retailing, 87 (1) p 1-17, 2011. Winner of the 2013 Davidson Best Paper Award

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Abstract:
While many offline retailers have developed informational websites that offer information on products and prices, the key question for such informational websites is whether they can increase revenues via web-to-store shopping. The current paper draws on the information search literature to specify and test hypotheses regarding the offline revenue impact of adding an informational website. Explicitly considering marketing efforts, a latent class model distinguishes consumer segments with different short-term revenue effects, while a Vector Autoregressive model on these segments reveals different long-term marketing response.


We find that the offline revenue impact of the informational website critically depends on the product category and customer segment. The lower online search costs are especially beneficial for sensory products and for customers distant from the store. Moreover, offline revenues increase most for customers with high web visit frequency. We find that customers in some segments buy more and more expensive products, suggesting that online search and offline purchases are complements. In contrast, customers in a particular segment reduce their shopping trips, suggesting their online activities partially substitute for experiential shopping in the physical store. Hence, offline retailers should use specific online activities to target specific product categories and customer segments.

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Private-Label Use and Store Loyalty

with Kusum Ailawadi and Jan-Benedict Steenkamp, Journal of Marketing, 72 (6), 19-30, 2008, Emerald Mgmt Reviews Citation of Excellence 2008

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Abstract:
The authors develop an econometric model of the relationship between a household’s private-label (PL) share and its behavioral store loyalty. The model includes major drivers of these two behaviors and controls for simultaneity and nonlinearity in the relationship between them. The model is estimated with a unique data set that combines complete purchase records of a panel of Dutch households with demographic and psychographic data.The authors estimate the model for two retail chains in the Netherlands—the leading service chain with a well-differentiated high-share PL and the leading value chain with a lower-share PL. They find that PL share significantly affects all three measures of behavioral loyalty in the study: share of wallet, share of items purchased, and share of shopping trips. In addition, behavioral loyalty has a significant effect on PL share. For the service chain, the authors find that both effects are in the form of an inverted U. For the value chain, the effects are positive and nonlinear, but they do not exhibit nonmonotonicity, because PL share has not yet reached high enough levels. The managerial implications of this research are important. Retailers can reap the benefits of a virtuous cycle; greater PL share increases share of wallet, and greater share of wallet increases PL share. However, this virtuous cycle operates only to a point because heavy PL buyers tend to be loyal to price savings and PLs in general, not to the PL of any particular chain.

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Who benefits from store brand entry?

with S. Srinivasan, Marketing Science, 23 (3), Summer, 364-390, 2004

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Abstract:
Store brand entry has become a key issue in marketing as it may structurally change the performance of and the interactions among all market players. Based on their multivariate time-series analysis, the authors demonstrate permanent performance effects of store brand entry, typically benefiting the retailer, the consumers, and premium-brand manufacturers, while harming second-tier brand manufacturers. For the retailer, they consistently find two beneficial effects of store brand entry: high unit margins on the store brand itself and higher unit margins on the national brands. This increase in unit margins implies that the retailer strengthens its bargaining position vis-à-vis national brand manufacturers. However, store brand entry only rarely yields category expansion and does not create store traffic or revenue benefits. Second, consumers do not obtain lower prices on all national brands, only on some second-tier brands. However, they benefit from enlarged product assortment and intensified promotional activity that lowers average price paid for two out of four categories. For the manufacturers, store brand entry is typically beneficial for premium-price national brands, but not for second-tier national brands. Often, premium brands experience lower long-term price sensitivity and higher revenues, whereas second-tier brands experience higher long-term price sensitivity and lower revenues.

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